Post-Recession Retail Landscape

Retail casualties have included:


Cicuit City
Linens N Things
Sharper Image
Mrs. Fields
Boscov's
Metromedia Rest (Bennigans, Steak & Ale)
Mervyn's
Steve & Barry's
Whitehall Jeweler
Goody's
Lillian Vernon
Wicke's
Fortunoff
..and probably a dozen more I've forgotten.

We have only started to get an indication of the impending collapse of their landlords. Again, we're probably only half way there....or less...considering that the damage from the emptying malls have a ripple effect on remaining tenants.

This was a long time coming, and this past year has only accelerated what was an eventuality. For a while now, consumers have been increasingly reluctant to pay for the marble floors, underutilized staff, and fragmented distribution costs in the prices they were paying for their purchases.

The current economy is just the catalyst for the collapse.

Who - besides the big-box retailers left standing - are the winners? Well, Gordon Bros. and Hilco, to name two. They have been the winning bidders in almost every major liquidation. They've also managed the liquidations in most major retail downsizings (closing stores for Macy's, KMart and others). After liquidating the hard assets, they retained and now own the rights to the best-known of those brand names, like Sharper Image.

As to the big-box retailers, WalMart and Costco have demonstrated that they can deliver goods to consumers at lower mark-ups than anyone else (contrary to those MFool teaser headlines, they are not mutually exclusive - Costco will not make inroads on Walmart and vice versa - their target customers are altogether different).

But neither expects its customers pay for (not to overplay this) the marble floors, underutilized staff, and distribution inefficiencies of the other retailers. And the Amazons will eventually pick off the ones Walmart and Costco don't crush. Sure, there's room for Target and Home Depot and maybe Kohl's and Lowes (until the inevitable HD-Lowes smackdown) - but we're going to see the kind of extreme consolidation, and pain, that we've seen in so many other industries over the years.